Trends in population health and demography

Stein Vollset and colleagues forecasted that population increase in sub-Saharan Africa will continue until 2100. Consequently, three of the region's countries join Nigeria among ten most populous globally: DR Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania.1Vollset SE Goren E Yuan C-W et al.Fertility, mortality, migration, scenarios for 195 territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis Global Burden Disease Study.Lancet. 2020; 396: 1285-1306Summary Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (160) Google Scholar Although we applaud authors including alternative based on change educational attainment access contraception, Article neglects safe childbirth as co-driver decreasing fertility rates. According colleagues, contraceptive met need account 80·5% variance cohort at age 50 years.1Vollset Including survival birth covariate might be seen minor factor difficult predict; however, neglecting this driver throughout risks presenting an unjustifiably simplified solution overpopulation. Moreover, it could exacerbate dangerous misconception saving lives leads additional overpopulation accelerated climate change.2Rosling H Rönnlund AR Rosling O Factfulness: reasons we're wrong about world—and why things are better than you think. Flatiron Books, New York, NY2018Google Across different cultures, when parents see their offspring survive early childhood, they start planning fewer children originally intended focusing optimising education social circumstances. This dynamic, can take time is interlinked with multiple other factors, such decline child labour increased contraception.3Omran A The epidemiologic transition. theory epidemiology change.Milbank Mem Fund Q. 1971; 49: 509-538Crossref (1831) causes mortality show promising declines, epidemic stillbirths neonatal deaths underprioritised. In addition strong ethical humanitarian imperative, ending global burden more 5 million lost per year have positive effect demography change.4You D Hug L Ejdemyr S al.Global, regional, national levels trends under-5 between 1990 2015, scenario-based projections 2030: systematic by UN Inter-agency Group Child Mortality Estimation.Lancet. 2015; 386: 2275-2286Summary (395) Scholar, 5Lawn JE Blencowe Waiswa P al.Stillbirths: rates, risk acceleration towards 2030.Lancet. 2016; 387: 587-603Summary (695) We declare no competing interests. Correspondence was written members PartoMa research team, which funded Danida Fellowship Centre, Ministry Foreign Affairs Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark. Fertility, StudyOur findings suggest continued female contraception hasten declines slow growth. sustained TFR lower replacement level many countries, China India, would economic, social, environmental, geopolitical consequences. Policy options adapt low fertility, while sustaining enhancing reproductive health, crucial years come. Full-Text Open AccessTrends health demographyNew forecasts colleagues1 predict growth do forecasts—for instance, one published UN.2 assume relatively future compared forecasts, Trends – Authors' replyWe appreciate opportunity respond comments regarding our Article.1 demographyAs scientists stakeholders field population, concerned highly publicised colleagues,1 models, data, underlying assumptions, not received enough critical scrutiny. demographyStein concluded likely peak around 2064 9·7 billion people.1 media focused claims economic challenges “inverted pyramids”. Both prognosis questionable doing great disservice women's rights prospects environmental security undermining political eliminating unwanted births sooner rather later.